Subclass 309 Grant Horizon

The tool fits a log-normal distribution to the two benchmarks you enter, so the 50th and 90th percentile dates match those figures exactly. The 25th and 75th percentiles are read straight off the same curve, which keeps every date on one consistent model.

The monthly probabilities are computed over a horizon long enough to capture more than 99.9 percent of the distribution. Because almost none of the mass is cut off, each month's value is an unconditional probability of a decision in that month, not a share of a truncated window.

The application status gently adjusts the curve. A front loaded case is a little faster and tighter, a complex case is later and more spread out. This is a planning assumption rather than a fixed rule.

Application complexity significantly extends the timeline, accounting for the reality of specialized processing queues. Complexities like previous refusals, overstays, PIC 4020 (fraud) waivers, and VACCU/character or ASIO security checks drastically stretch the 90th percentile tail of the distribution.

The seasonal overlay redistributes probability across the calendar for the June and December slowdowns and the autumn lift, using multipliers that average to one. It reshapes the month to month curve and moves the busiest month without changing the totals or the percentile dates. The progress bar is measured against the published 90% benchmark you entered, before any readiness adjustment.

This is a statistical scenario model and not a Department of Home Affairs decision predictor. The published benchmarks describe recently decided applications across the whole queue. They cannot see your case, your officer, health or character checks, requests for more information or your position in the queue.

Read the output as a likely timing window rather than a guaranteed grant date. Refresh the two benchmarks from the Home Affairs tool from time to time, since the Department updates them monthly.